| Spectrum Pharma: The Labor Day Catalyst (NASDAQ:SPPI) | | Print | |
| Thursday, 20 August 2009 14:20 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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FIRST-LINE CONSOLIDATION THERAPY Upon filing a supplemental Biologic License Application (sBLA) in late 2008, SPPI’s aim is to obtain regulatory approval for Zevalin Induction therapy generally includes a combination of (1) a chemotherapeutic, such as doxorubicin and (2) rituximab. Consolidation In April 2008, Zevalin was approved in the EU as a first-line consolidation therapy for patients with NHL. Here, it should be noted that outside the US, Zevalin is marketed by Bayer Schering (BYERF.PK). THE FIT STUDY
Consolidation Therapy in Other Cancers Consolidation therapy is used often to treat other forms of cancers. In the conference call, Dr. Sandler explained how consolidation therapy is used to treat a related cancer, acute leukemia.
“For decades, doctors have been treating acute leukemias with (1) induction therapy to wipe out as much bulky disease as possible; (2) followed by consolidation therapy to further reduce any minimal residual disease and to provide the patient with the best quality of response possible; and (3) maintenance therapy to sustain the consolidation response, thus improving the duration of the response.”
ZEVALIN SALES INCREASED 25% IN Q2 2009
During the recent conference call, Amar Singh, SPPI’s Chief Commercial Officer, provided some insight on the upside surprise achieved with Zevalin sales.
“We are encouraged by the strong signal that we have received from the market after just one full quarter of marketing and sales under Spectrum’s leadership.
(1) Average growth in unit sales over the prior three years when we compare only the first and second quarters, the rates were a -12%. Despite the fact that two out of these three years, the drug was previously sold by a company (Biogen Idec (BIIB)) much larger than Spectrum.
(2) This improvement from a decrease of -12% to an increase of over 20% was achieved in the first full quarter since Spectrum acquired 100% of the rights to Zevalin.
(3) Importantly, we accomplished this at a time of heightened competition from the launch of Treanda® (marketed in the US by Cephalon (CEPH)) in the refractory NHL setting last fall.
(4) We accomplished this in the absence of receiving regulatory approval of Zevalin in the front-line setting.”
Singh concluded, “It appears that we are well on our way to achieving our . . . goal of stabilizing [Zevalin] sales.”
Since SPPI acquired the rights to Zevalin from Cell Therapeutics (CTIC) in mid March 2009, I agree with Mr. Singh’s sentiment. That Zevalin sales actually rose for the first time in the past three years is very compelling. From my view, the 25% increase is a meaningful improvement and strongly suggests that Zevalin may finally have a promising future.
SALES FORCE MATTERS
In the conference call, Dr. Rajesh Shrotriya, SPPI’s chairman and CEO, revealed that the company’s sales force, responsible for marketing Zevalin, consisted of 40 executives. Dr. Shrotriya also pointed out that the past sales teams from both Biogen Idec (BIIB) and Cell Therapeutics (CTIC), who had previously held the rights to and were responsible for marketing Zevalin, consisted of no more than seven, (7), executives.
One could reasonably argue that the size of SPPI’s sales force may be having an impact on current Zevalin sales and responsible for the respective 25% increase.
· It looks like SPPI may have very well identified the correct issues and mistakes made by others in the past. With an early increase in sales, SPPI’s plan seems to be working and the company does not appear to be repeating mistakes made in the past.
· This increase implies either: (1) SPPI has assembled the kind of sales force necessary to market Zevalin appropriately; (2) more physicians are beginning to adopt Zevalin; or (3) all of the above. Nevertheless, it's very telling. The previous sentiment may finally be changing in Zevalin’s favor.
For these reasons, I anticipate sales of the drug will likely continue to grow in the coming quarters - especially if it's approved for the first-line consolidation setting by the FDA on (or before) September 7, Labor Day.
Since institutional investors and hedge funds have been slow to catch on, SPPI still remains a hidden gem and an excellent investment opportunity.
· With a current price of $6.32 and a market cap of a mere $263 million, I anticipate shares of SPPI will likely see a dramatic rise in the coming weeks and months.
To learn more about RITs, Zevalin® and Bexxar®, take a minute and check out the resources listed below. It should be noted that Bexxar is marketed worldwide by GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
· New York Times, July 14, 2007 Article
Interested investors might also consider reviewing my past coverage of SPPI.
· SPPI: Outlook Remains Very Promising · Zevalin: The Importance of FDA Approval · 17 Reasons Bayer Might Acquire Spectrum Pharmaceuticals Disclosure: Long SPPI. BiomedReports is not paid or compensated to report news and developments about publicly traded companies. Full disclosure can be read at the bottom of / About Us / Section Add this page to your favorite Social Bookmarking websites
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Comments (7)
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Claude Bryant
said:
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... Justin, I generally agree with your presentation of the facts about Zevalin and Spectrum. However, I see a couple of gotcha's. Things that analysts may be picking up on that can hold the stock back. First, is the presentation at the recent BMO conference. This adresses the logistical problems with Zevalin having to do with the bio-scan. Dr Sandler answered a question pertaining to the expected date of its removal. I was struck by two of his comments. First, it was the FDA that was proactive in requesting data to remove it. That's a realy good sign. Second, Dr. Sandler estimated 6-9 months for SPPI to crunch the numbers and 6-10 months for the FDA to review and approve. At the very best, its 12 months. At the worst it's 19 months. This is a serious hindrance to Zevalin. You state that there's been an increase in sales of Zevalin last quarter of 25%. No disagreement there. But it's a lot like saying the S&P has moved up 25% from the march lows. It's realy not much to shout home about. Yes, They have stopped the bleeding, but there's a long way to go. Finally, you did not comment on Fusilev. The numbers were dismal compared to the first quarter. The reason is that there was a leucovorin shortage in the first quarter and it's over. Granted Fuilev has lower toxicity than leucovorin, but at $51.00 per course versus $0.81 per course for leucovorin, I think Fusilev is relegated to those that absolutely cannot take the generic. I have to believe that Fusilev sales will dissappoint in the next year. For my money, SPPI's catalysts have to to do with EOquin, their SPI-1620 adjunct to chemo, and RenaZorb. What are your thoughts on these catalysts? |
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Oren Korem
said:
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... Justin, The Zevalin story is good, but don't you think Fusilev has even bigger potential impact on SPPI ? |
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AlexHidell
said:
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... Justin, You have not factored in the warrants from these offerings May/June in your PPS estimates? If current PPS does rise with positive events then most likely the offering holders shall exercise the warrants later this year. I believe they were exercisable 6 months from the date of original placement and at $5.11-$7.15 -about 5M+ shares from my memory? Also, based on SPPI past performance in regard to share issuance, don't you believe the company will issue again from their open shelf if PPS rises above $8-10? |
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john sherman
said:
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... how do you feel about this stock now and your target price of #31.00 a bit rich? |
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This Labor Day, September 7, Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:SPPI) expects an FDA decision for their non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL) radio-immunotherapeutic (RIT), Zevalin®. 











